Monday, March 23, 2009

What I've been doing

Since I got a cushy government job several months ago after graduating from college, I've been living stress-free and catching up on leisure reading in both fiction and nonfiction. I've been learning a lot, and most of it is highly bloggable. Why, then, haven't I been blogging?

I've begun to seriously worry about my digital identity. It's apparent from several comments that there are people who know who I am, and I don't know who they are. Some people might wonder why this might be a problem. The problem is that this site was intended to be a place where I could truly speak my mind and voice controversial opinions. In many cases these opinions will not be correct, and sometimes they may sound absurd. I'm an intensely private and self-conscious person and I can't stand to have my mistakes archived in the Wayback Machine for all to see for the rest of my life. I've played fast and loose with my identity on this site, and at some point I plan to cultivate a new internet identity more carefully. Statements signed by my real name will ideally be carefully-researched and screened for neutral wording.

In my last post I mentioned that I was reading The Skeptical Environmental, a book which is overwhelmingly researched. While I can't say that I've fact-checked it thoroughly, on the surface it appears accurate to call it, as one Amazon reviewer says, a tour de force in environmental science. It's admittedly shaken my "ecowarrior" philosophy to the core. Prior to reading it I read a Worldwatch State of the World book, which I found disappointing. Lomborg heavily criticizes the Worldwatch books and exposes in some cases what appears to be scientific dishonesty on the part of environmentalists, even global warming theorists. My thoughts on the issue are still developing, but while my convictions were shaken, I still disagree with Lomborg on his major conclusions and remain concerned about biodiversity, global warming, persistent pollutants, farming, and water. Yet I highly recommend the book for the one of the best available monographs on the statistics and theory behind environmental issues.

I'll skip some of my other reading aside from mentioning that it relates to medicine, scientific controversy, and corporate conflicts of interest (eg Marcia Angell's The Truth About the Drug Companies). Today I saw a section (p. 145) in The Money Culture (a humorous book on Wall Street) which related my thoughts on some of these issues:
Like about half of America, my father believes he can systematically beat the stock market ... shallow pretenders ... bother him ... it pleases him to see Rukeyser embarrass the various hemline theorists, 75-year cyclists, Elliot Wavers, and druids ... he watches Louis Rukeyser for the same reason every right-thinking, sexually repressed, country club Episcopalian lingered long and hard over the delicious defrockings of Jimmy Swaggart and Jim Bakker. It confirms his skepticism about alternative forms of belief. (emphasis mine)

Ultimately, I'm not right-leaning. I probably rate high on the psychological "openness" score. However, I try to be rational. I'm willing to investigate implausible claims before writing them off. That's perhaps wasted a lot of my time, but it's also helped me learn a lot. Ultimately I've tentatively concluded that fringe scientists and theorists are more likely to engage in scientific dishonesty. But they don't have a monopoly on such improprieties, and rationally one cannot come to firm conclusions without investigation and empirical evidence. There are, for example, ways to make a lot of money trading stocks. It's not nonsense. But it doesn't have anything to do with Elliot Wave theory -- which, I'll admit, I haven't investigated and have little regard for.

Thursday, January 15, 2009

The Unavoidable Trend: Aging

Lately I have been reading The Skeptical Environmentalist by Bjorn Lomborg. I haven't gotten that far, but expect a critical review in a few weeks. Yesterday I was reading an early chapter, and it was arguing that things have improved and that overpopulation is not a serious issue. I've always supported the former point, although I'm skeptical of the latter. I don't have the book handy (my home computer is in bad shape), but I believe he says that the proportion of people over 50 will be half of the world population in 2050 (up from 20% or so right now). What I do remember distinctly, however, is his statement that 80+ will be 10% of the population, whereas they were less than 1% when he wrote the book in 2000.

This is an incredible trend, and no doubt lots of money will be made on it. It makes me want to get into the health sciences profession.

Monday, December 15, 2008

Sunday, December 14, 2008

Contrarian Investment Strategies: The Next Generation

I liked the last contrarian investor book so much that I'm now reading the next one. It's a fair bit of review so far, but it never hurts to read about the experts making major screwups another time. You can see what I'm talking about on page 68 of the preview. Currently I'm on page 81 where he's discussing the ubiquitous overconfidence cognitive bias. Highly recommended.

UPDATE: I actually finished this book later that night. As the first comment stated, his critique of the efficient markets hypothesis (spread throughout the book) was magnificent. I'm working on taking some notes for later, since unfortunately I only had it on a 2-week interlibrary loan.

Saturday, December 13, 2008

Thundarr the Barbarian and Hiero's Journey

My coworker reads fantasy/science fiction novels. I haven't done that since high-school (and one brief spurt in college), but I miss them. So he gave me a copy of Hiero's Journey, a fun little book about a post-apocalyptic fantasy world.

It reminded me distinctly of Thundarr the Barbarian, a similarly post-apocalyptic but less sophisticated fantasy TV show on Cartoon Network. I've managed to find the first couple episodes on Youtube.

Later, I might watch a bit of Pirates of Darkwater. When I was a kid, I only watched a few episodes of these shows here and there through the kindly recordings given to us by our elderly neighbor. We didn't have cable.

UPDATE: The shows got old quick.

Web of Debt and history

I happen to be browsing through Web of Debt, a recent book on the conspiracy theories involving bankers. Most of it is stuff I've heard before, but I found Chapter 5 interesting. It is on the "historical revisionism" of the Middle Ages. It cites Thorold Rogers and William Cobbett in making the case that the Middle Ages was not as backward as it is typically perceived. They quote Thorold as saying that "a labourer could provide all the necessities for his family for a year by working 14 weeks".

I haven't checked their sources, although I plan to at some point. But I know the same point is also made in reference to Paleolithic societies, see the reference to Sahlins in this part of the Wikipedia hunter-gatherer article.

There's a couple reasons why we might work so much more in modern society. One, there are dwindling natural resources combined with a much larger population. Probably more importantly, however, there is just a greater demand for various material goods.

These reports could be exaggerated. I'm not sure how these reports are compared to modern hunter-gatherer societies, such as those in the Amazons, but such comparisons may not be realistic to other regions, since that is an extremely tough region. I would expect other hunter-gatherer societies to have more leisure than Amazonian tribes.

The book attributes the difference to usury, which seems dubious, although it is perhaps true that our current banking system puts greater emphasis on infrastructure and investment, which requires that we forego present consumption to a greater degree.

Saturday, December 06, 2008

The Things They Carried

I finally finished this book by Tim O'Brien on the Vietnam war. The most poignant chapters were Speaking of Courage and the Lives of the Dead. Tragedies of suicide and childhood romance, respectively. I've always been a sucker for childhood romance. Hearts in Atlantis, by Stephen King, was one of my favorite books partly because the first third was about childhood.

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Administrative law, the environment, and mercury

21 CFR 25.34 (Code of Federal Regulations) is eye-opening. It allows the FDA to basically ignore the environmental implications of certain things in that list, such as Class II medical devices and electronic products (Class II means that they could be unsafe, but probably aren't).

In 67 FR 7620 (enjoy the ugly document, courtesy of the federal government!), the FDA made its move to finally reclassify dental mercury from a Class I medical device (completely safe) to a Class II medical device.

In section VII, it states this:

VII. Environmental Impact

The agency has determined under 21 CFR 25.34(b) that this action is of a type that does not individually or cumulatively have a significant effect on the human environment. Therefore, neither an environmental assessment nor an environmental impact statement is required.


How cute. Meanwhile, in 2005 the WHO stated that mercury from dental amalgams + laboratory and medical devices contributed 53% of total mercury emissions.[1]

For those curious as to how I ended up reading the CFR, I was reading an article[2] from the Journal of Law and Health.

Saturday, October 25, 2008

The Contrarian Investor

I wish I had written this book. Although it was published in 1979, the topics it covers are still the bleeding edge of investment science today -- behavioral science and the herd effect, value investing, low price-to-earnings, and cash flow.

The only area in which I differ with David Dreman is in technical analysis. He cites a fair amount of academic evidence against technical analysis. I haven't looked at that research, but studies of technical analysis are easily cherrypicked and misinterpreted. The fact that 90%+ of professional Forex traders use technical analysis is evidence enough of its usefulness. However, Dreman points out the ridiculousness of the other extreme, the efficient markets hypothesis, and the truth is that much of technical analysis is of dubious use.

Since much of this stuff is review for me, I skimmed it. He cites plenty of interesting information, including some psychology literature that I'd never heard of such as Gustave LeBon's The Crowd and Irving Jarvis's Victims of Groupthink, and a bunch of studies showing that experiments frequently make mistakes. Other literature was familiar, such as Muzafer Sherif's light experiment (when "confederates" in a study estimate the distance of light from them, the subjects yield to the judgment of the crowd) and Tversky and Kahneman's look at cognitive biases and judgmental heuristics.

Since the book was written in the 70s, the last chapter of the book is devoted to inflation. Conventional wisdom of the time was that inflation made stocks a poor investment. Dreman particularly focuses upon the Modigliani and Cohn position that professional investors just don't understand how inflation impacts equities.

First, investors confuse nominal and real interest rates (real interest = nominal - inflation). Since bonds pay high nominal rates in inflationary times, such as 9 percent in 1979 when inflation was 7 percent, investors look for rates of return from stocks in excess of 9 percent (the excess to adjust for rate) instead of in excess of the real rate of 2 percent. (UPDATE 2009-10-7: This paragraph doesn't make any sense to me right now. Why would investors looking for higher rates of return from stocks lead to them outperforming bonds? Outperformance occurs when an investment is not valued highly enough...)

Second, investors don't account fully for the effects of inflation. Inflation may create inflated profits (under the last-in first-out accounting method) and depreciation is exacerbated, but corporations benefit from being able to pay back their debt on much cheaper terms -- since the debt is relatively fixed and their income is being inflated.

Put together, these two factors make equity investments much better than bonds -- generating something like twice the return over a 10-year period.

Friday, October 24, 2008

Summary of the Equity Bailout; Money Going to Bailouts?

Here is a nice summary of at least one of the bailout plans, the $250 billion preferred stock recapitalization plan, ie the TARP (Troubled Assets Relief Program) Capital Purchase Program. In other news, someone says that a State Street (NYS:STT) banker is getting a nice bonus check this year, courtesy of the US taxpayers.

I'm still not sure how this program is structured exactly, but I hope that this $250 billion comes from the $700 billion. The Wall Street Journal seems to say that ("TARP will also be used by Treasury when it puts new equity into banks").

Friday, October 17, 2008

The Federal Reserve's Holdings of US Treasury Bonds Declines?

When the Federal Reserve wants to manipulate the federal funds rate, it buys and sells US treasuries in open market operations. When it wants to lower the rate and increase the money supply, it buys treasuries. In September 2007, it had $780 billion in these treasuries on its balance sheet. Last July, it had only $478 billion.[1] Such a decline is unprecedented. Since the US economy nearly always grows, the money supply must increase proportionately in order for deflation not to happen. And yet here we see one influence on the money supply cut by nearly 40%. Yet the monetary base has spiked.[2] This is because the Fed sold its treasury bonds to the public in order to make way for more loans. As long as it doesn't sell the bonds to US banks, it won't hurt the US money supply.

The details are in the Fed's current balance sheet. The new loans are listed in the Term Auction facility and the "other assets". I don't feel terribly comfortable analyzing it. On their September 2007 balance sheet other assets is only 40 billion. These other assets may not be quite clear, although I haven't investigated thoroughly. Bloomberg has sued[3] to gain access to the collateral on the loans and that might include more information on these other asset.

The Big Picture, my favorite financial blog, has a nice graphic on this.

Thursday, October 16, 2008

Worldwatch Institute's State of the World 2007

I'm browsing through this book, and it is generally pretty good. It seems to focus on cities, however, and it is not as heavy on the facts and graphics as I sort of expected it to be.

I read the first half more closely, and now I'm more browsing. I was interested to read about eucalyptus as a cash-crop in Timbuktu, which lead me to the Wikipedia page. Apparently the tree is mainly native to Australia, and there's some major concern that it is an invasive species in South Africa.[1] Yet Worldwatch made no mention of that! The plant they mentioned next as helping to revitalize rural Africa, bourgou, seems more solidly ecological, and the National Research Council mentioned it favorably in a book on "Lost Crops of Africa". Apparently it can survive for months under water,[2] making it somewhat unique, and thus can be planted and harvested in areas where nothing could be grown previously.

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

A Proposed Solution to the Housing Crisis

Part of what I seek to do here is to raise things that aren't being heard enough. As Krugman notes, the current bailout plan looks to be throwing money at some US banks without compensating US taxpayers for the risk they're taking.

What's worse is that this fix might not even fix the problem, because it is not only the subprime loans which are the problem -- it is all sorts of loans. Jason Lindt makes this case, and although I can't vouch for his numbers, he makes it convincingly. He says we should go straight to the problem: banks' insolvent balance sheets. While the current bailout plan looks like a sneaky way to throw money at banks, a good plan should specifically offer capital to these banks by purchasing their preferred stock. This gives them some Tier 1 capital as a cushion, and it also makes them pay us dividends in the future.

I still have questions about this. Sometimes the dividends on preferred stock don't get paid, but then they stack up cumulatively. The Tier 1 capital page says these types of preferred stock don't usually apply to Tier 1 capital. We might need a strange kind of which is more geared towards the long-term, and also gives us voting power in these companies. We need to put these banks on long-term payment plans, because it is going to be a while before they'll be able to pay us back for the mess they've caused.

Incidentally, as to the cause of this, Anton Wahlman notes something I haven't heard before: the effect of the Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997, which exempted profits on personal residents from taxation. That law likely contributed more than the Community Reinvestment Act bullshit, which has been refuted.

Friday, September 19, 2008

The paths

If you live in a world of your own,
A world of isms and a dusty tome, hook a left.
Search till you die;
the wisdom you seek is a lie.

If you live in the world of matter,
A world of irrational symbols, reactions, and recursion,
try the path to the right,
but know you may be in for a fight.

You live in a world of people,
Some are strong, and some feeble.
Beware the bull; his word can pull.
And consider neither path, young soul.

My goal?

Granted curiosity infernal,
I seek life eternal.

Monday, September 15, 2008

Review of Kicking Away the Ladder by Ha-Joon Chang

I was pleasantly surprised by this book, which was first assigned to me in a class. I must not have read it then, and now I'm finally working through the books I've piled up over the years. It destroyed the misconceptions which I'd finally come to accept after years of brainwashing (with no evidence).

The first claim is that mainstream economists have ignored history. The "eminent" Nobel (the fake economics one) laureate economic historian, Douglass North, wrote "the standard history of the United States" economy which mentioned tariffs once "in order to dismiss them as an insignificant factor in explaining US industrial development" (2002:24-25). This can only be regarded as intellectually dishonest. Alexander Hamilton first proposed the infant industry argument for US industry, in opposition to Adam Smith's advice that the US focus on agriculture. The US maintained average weighted tariffs of around 40-50% on manufactured goods until 1950. The illustrative table, from Paul Bairoch's book Economics and World History, is available online.[1]

The second chapter focuses on policies which countries used to get an edge in industry. Espionage, tariffs, subsidies for imported raw materials, government-subsidized plants and researchers, and other methods were used to bolster industry.

The next chapter focuses on institutions. It's much looser and weaker, but makes the tentative case that we might be pushing important institutions such as democracy, central banking, various regulations, limited liability corporations, bankruptcy law, property (including intellectual) rights, the judiciary, child labor, social welfare provisions, and information disclosure too fast on developing nations. I'm not sure I'm convinced, but it is interesting. Some of these are important, others are less so, certainly. The most important, in my mind, are stable law, transparency, information disclosure, and property rights for the masses rather than the few. The succinct and scholarly discussion of economic institutions in historical and developmental context alone makes the book worth it.

After reading the book, I'm inclined to agree that activist policies are often necessary. Friedrich List, the major theorist of the infant industry argument, argued that free trade was really only beneficial among equally industrialized countries, and I'm inclined to agree. A country needs to build up its basic industrial institutions. However, tariffs are probably not the way to go today. Export-oriented policies used by the Asian Tigers are preferable. The issue is complex, however, as all the countries are chasing after a limited supply. Economists seem skeptical of the race to the bottom in international trade (in things like environmental standards), but I don't really understand why.

Tuesday, September 09, 2008

Should we be trying to support advertising?

There's a bit of a problem with "new media". People aren't willing to pay for it. We may have micropayments on the way, but for now the support is largely advertising. But advertising may not be as lucrative as people think. As web-consumers become smarter and internet search (as well as other internet navigation) becomes more effective, click-through rates plummet to nothing.

The bigger problem will come when companies realize that much of advertising is a waste of money. A recent study found by comparing US and Canadian drug use (where drug advertising illegal) that drug advertising was short-lived and "modest".[1] Media producers, particularly independent ones, will find it more difficult to spend time doing what they're doing.

When I find a good blog, I purposefully click on Google ads to show a little support.

Sunday, September 07, 2008

Capitalism and Freedom Review

After reading Capitalism and Freedom carefully, my opinion of Milton Friedman has been revised upward. I was assigned this book for class, but I never gave it a thoughtful, careful read till now. The book that I had read carefully from Milton, Free To Choose, left me thinking he was not a great thinker. My recollections were that Free To Choose was surprisingly lacking in nuance. That is probably because it was targeted for a mass audience, but its simplicity still seems like a negative mark for Milton Friedman.

Capitalism and Freedom has very few numbers, and no models, but it is well-argued nonetheless. It is full of rhetoric, but it is the kind of rhetoric that makes sense -- the kind which characterizes government controlling the individual as a violation of human rights. Friedman argues against the central control which was prominent at the time, but is no longer taken seriously. He does not so much engage the other type of socialism -- welfare capitalism, except to perhaps endorse it in his last sections on the distribution of income and social welfare measures.

In Friedman's second chapter, he notes the appropriate functions of government (p. 34) -- functions which I completely agree with, but which neocons, and liberals, tend to forget about. These include setting and enforcing the rules of the "economic game", promoting competition, countering monopolies, overcoming neighborhood effects (also called externalities), and even supplementing charity and the family in protecting the irresponsible. He identifies a number of policies as unequivocally wrong. Generally I don't agree that these are always wrong, but it is hard to see why agriculture price supports would be necessary. Others, such as tariffs, parks, and detailed regulation of banking would seem to have a place dependent upon the situation.

Chapter 3, on money, is probably one of the most important chapters. Friedman opposes the current Federal Reserve system, believing it is too liable to human error, and instead proposes (citing his A Program for Monetary Stability) a consistent rate of growth in the money supply of 3 to 5 percent.

Chapter 4, International Financial and Trade Arrangements, is also enormously important, and unfortunately awfully complex -- more so than money. Friedman endorses the floating exchange rate which Soros finds so troubling -- and the floating rate might be the best of bad options. Unfortunately, it leads to a fair amount of uncertainty, speculation, and sudden catastrophes as currencies change. If only there was a perfect system.

In chapter 5, Friedman critiques the Keynesian use of fiscal policy to alleviate unemployment. He argues that it relies upon untenable assumptions, because the money which the government spends must be borrowed from the public, which will drive up interest rates, and thus reduce the amount of spending and investment. He admits that it is ultimately an empirical question, but says that his recent work (The Relative Stability of the Investment Multiplier and Monetary Velocity in the United States, 1896-1958) suggests that there is no rise in expenditures, as his "quantity theory" suggests.

In Chapter 6, Friedman lays out the case for vouchers in education. I won't spend much time here -- I agree that vouchers are a good thing if strict standards are maintained, but Friedman endorses questionable standards, such as allowing segregated schools. Chapter 7 is on discrimination, a complicated political subject I'd rather not get into.

Chapter 8 is on monopoly. Friedman admits that all the ways of dealing with monopoly are bad, but tentatively concludes that leaving monopolies private may be best, mainly because innovation happens so quickly, and the government is so reluctant to let loose of its hold. I'm not sure I agree, but it is a decent point. He also makes the case here that a corporation should not be socially responsible, and that government needs to be the one holding people responsible. This sort of reminds me of how I used to play MUDs -- exploit the code, and argue that I shouldn't have to maintain reasonable behavior if it is not programmed into the game. It was probably a bad attitude, and a corporation should similarly not follow the letter of the law -- if it does, it will hopefully find itself in trouble, as I did. This argument from Friedman might be taken as an implicit argument that the government must be especially vigilant and free to take action.

He notes an interesting unintended consequence of our current system. Dividends are taxed double, which leads corporations to hold dividends and then invest them in their business, whether it is prudent or not. I fully agree with him here, and wish corporations disbursed more dividends. He wants to abolish the corporate income tax and instead force shareholders to record their profits from the company on their taxes -- meaning that they'd have to pay taxes on them, I'm guessing?

In Chapter 9, Friedman makes the case that the American Medical Association is a lobbying group bent on keeping competitors out. It's amusing. He defends "faith healers" by noting that one of thousands of quacks may produce a valuable breakthrough through their unorthodox experimentation. Those of you who know my Wikipedia efforts will know that I am sympathetic to alternative medicine, and I like this defense -- although I truly dislike things like therapeutic touch and homeopathy. Friedman argues that restricting medicine only to the highly-skilled reduces the total "physician-hours", and reduces total amount of care, thereby reducing the quality. Friedman tentatively notes that government certification may be necessary because certification information is nonexcludable -- one person can pass it on to others.

In Chapter 10, on the distribution of income, Friedman gets again into the tough ethical issues. He admits that the issue is difficult. Somehow he tries to run inequality from personal endowments together with inequality from inherited wealth, because the latter leads to personal endowments. To an extent, this is true, but he emphasizes it too much. He also makes a somewhat bizarre argument that if there were 4 Robinson Crusoes marooned on four islands, and one landed on a fruitful island, that Crusoe would not be required to share his wealth, and the 3 others, who were barely scratching by, would not be morally justified in taking it. He says this is analagous to someone finding $20 on the street, and then 3 people deciding to mug you for not sharing it. Does his analogy make sense? I dunno. I don't get ethical issues, generally, but I think 1) we should encourage a meritocracy, 2) we cannot allow people to starve or live with debilitating illness. Which brings up to the next chapter.

In Chapter 11, Friedman discusses Social Security and other social welfare provisions. He criticizes the idea behind social security -- that people cannot save for themselves -- however, I tend to think that people cannot. He notes this possibility as well, but thinks there are better ways of ensuring that people secure their retirements, so that the government is not left supporting them in their old age. He argues that most people would save for their unemployment, and that social security arose only because many people were unprepared for the Great Depression.

In Chapter 12, Friedman endorses a negative income tax, noting that such a system would target poverty much more specifically than minimum wage laws.

In 13, he sums up his arguments. Nothing too interesting here, and I'm losing steam.

Sunday, May 18, 2008

What follows?

Everything logical should be able to be stated in understandable and because of that memorable terms. That's not to say the world can be described understandably per se -- the world is not fundamentally logical. But if someone says "you just have to see it, or it just is", rather than "it follows from this principle working like this", it seems likely that they're more confused than you are. (I have already been proven wrong on these, but it's to a degree -- I assume I will discover the intuitive understanding.) There are, I suppose, important foundational principles which just have to be assumed.

How about morality -- is that one of these foundational principles? I think not. But it is clear that there is physical truth -- a fixed sort of truth -- and spiritual truth. And spiritual truth includes not only your wildest imaginations (and then some) but also things outside of your wildest imagination. But then how do we factor in the effect of data, then? All truth is constructed from some limited data of the real world. Its degree of truth, then, is a function of how close it comes to the real world. There is a truth for both physical science and human morality -- or does it? I'm not sure if we can describe what we should define as truly good -- but we can describe what we will define as truly good.

The test of a real philosopher: to learn without being taught?

If the harder disciplines (physics, mathematics) are half as screwed up as philosophy, economics, and medicine (in no particular order), then God help us.

I've forgotten everything else I wanted to say.